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We classify all such prepayments that Rosneft has received or may receive in the future as debt-like and include them in Rosneft's gross leverage calculations, applying the 'substance over form' principle. We believe that in substance these prepayments are similar to a USD15bn loan that Rosneft raised in 2009 from CNPC that was secured on deliveries of 15m tons of oil per annum to CNPC. Furthermore, we classify all oil contract-linked prepayments as secured. Consequently, we may notch down Rosneft's senior unsecured obligations in the event that the ratio of secured borrowings to EBITDA exceeds 2x, to highlight the risk of subordination for unsecured creditors. We estimate this figure was close to 1x at end-2012.
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